Import AI 459: AI oversight is difficult; scaling laws for protein folding models; and pricing the extinction risk of AI systems
US AI economy reached ~$250B in 2025, growing ~2,600% annually but invisible in GDP statistics.
“The AI economy in the United States has been growing at an unprecedented rate, but this extraordinary growth is largely invisible in conventional GDP statistics.”— Jack Clark
Economists from UVA, Anthropic, and the Bank of Canada estimate nominal AI GDP at ~$250B in 2025, growing ~2,600% per year in quality-adjusted real terms, yet nearly invisible in conventional GDP figures. It matters because AI may be the first major technology to substitute rather than complement labor, meaning mismeasurement could leave governments unprepared for a labor-tax-base shock.