Import AI 462: Superpersuasion; self-sustaining AI; paths to ASI
AI systems are now reliably more persuasive than expert humans in real-world text-based persuasion.
“AI systems were reliably more persuasive than expert humans, even when expert humans chose their issues, researched in advance, underwent hours of live, structured practice, and were incentivized with £1,000 cash bonuses”— Jack Clark
A study across 18,978 conversations by Oxford, the UK AI Security Institute, Stanford, and LSE found AI systems out-persuade expert humans on policy issues and charity donations, with Claude Opus 4.1 and 4.6 the strongest persuaders. The AI edge came from rapidly deploying large quantities of information; constraining AI to human speed and length erased the gap. This matters because superhuman persuasion has major implications for AI safety, governance, and real-world manipulation risks.